Quick Pick Thursday Game Bengals at Steelers-10.5

The 1-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals look to play spoiler on Thursday as they head to Pittsburgh to take on the 7-3 Steelers. Despite the terrible season coach Marvin Lewis will have his players geared up for a prime time divisional game. The Steelers are banged up and have had problems keeping Roethlisberger from eating dirt. This game will be better than what most people will think as the Bengals are motivated to take down their biggest rival. Gridiron Experts is predicting a Steelers win but will not cover the spread.

Pittsburgh 27-23

Fantasy Football Playoff Preview
Every fantasy football league is different, but most have a three game playoff bracket starting either week 14 or 15. Gridiron Experts will take a look at which players could make or break your fantasy playoff run. Last year, the New York Giants got hot at the right time, and it carried over into the playoffs. In fantasy football, players on teams fighting for playoff berths can make for great sleepers, and can sometimes make the difference against tough playoff matchups.

Most people look at match-ups, thinking that a game against the Detroit Lions or Oakland Raiders means huge fantasy numbers. The truth is a tough divisional match-up or a must-win game can sometimes result in bigger numbers, as both teams are geared up and playing for more important things than just padding their stats. A running back will always see carries, so never overlook a good match-up; conversely, quarterbacks and receivers don’t see a lot of action in a blow out win, as coaches tend to lean on a heavy running game to drain the clock. Expect teams like Tennessee and the NY Giants to allow back up players to see more carries and catches, as they will want to prepare for the playoffs around weeks 14 through 17.

Bring on the spoilers! While fans hang their heads as teams start to become eliminated from playoffs, star fantasy players take this opportunity to catch the eye of general managers for a pay raise or change of scenery. No one wants to get canned, and the final four weeks of the season for certain players can be the difference between coming back or getting the bags packed.

Players that might turn it on:

Aaron Rodgers and receiving core - The Packers are 1-2 since coming off their bye week, but played hard in losses to the Vikings and Titans. In fact, we had the Packers upsetting the mighty Titans, but an overtime coin flip lost that one for them. The main reason why Rodgers and Jennings could get hot in the next couple of weeks is the confidence that this “rookie” quarterback has developed; no one wants Favre back, and the comparisons have stopped. Rodgers can finally just play ball.

Matt Cassel- Each week this guy seems to improve, and with such a tight race in the AFC East every game will need Cassel to make plays. Moss was a monster last year but hasn’t been able to connect yet with his new QB; be patient, 81 could be the guy who wins you your fantasy pool. Matched up against ordinary secondaries in the final four weeks, expect the deep bomb pass to make an appearance.

The Cowboys - When healthy, this team has a pro bowl starting offense. The finger-thing is over, and in the next few weeks this team will rebound in the offensive department. The best part fantasy-wise is that the Cowboys defense is a joke, and every game could involve a shoot out

The Eagles - Don’t laugh, I know things look bleak, but this team has too much talent to go belly up. Andy and Donovan are in hot water but will work it out. This team went 3-0 to finish the season last year, even though they had little to no chance of making the playoffs.

Quinn and the Cleve - Brady Quinn has arrived, and has added new life to these fantasy players. Win or lose, players like Braylon Edwards, K2, and Jamal Lewis will continue to put up numbers.

Needs improvement:

LT and the Chargers - The holes are just not there for LT anymore, it may be this new style of offense that uses a one back system instead of a fullback. Last year LT had Lorenzo Neal creating space for him. If LT can get a handle on this new style, or if the coaching staff can find a lead blocker, LT could regain his power status, but until then he’s just going to kill people’s fantasy hopes.

Warner and the Cardinals - I know things are going well now, but if you have players on this team cross your fingers. The Cards and legendary for choking, and being in such a joke of division, this team might not be as great as you think. Why would they get into a shoot out if they can lock up the division? If Warner goes down, so does this team; I can see them starting Matt Leinart and resting Warner if Arizona clinches by week 15.

Matt Forte - I could be wrong, but Forte might hit the rookie wall soon.

Ben Roethlisberger - The final four teams the Steelers face are: Dallas, at Baltimore, at Tennessee, and Cleveland. I know I said not to bench a player based on one bad match-up, but this is four bad match-ups, and I just don’t have faith in that o-line.

I think Andy Reid misunderstood Donovan McNabb after the loss to the Giants a week ago. McNabb had stated in a post game press conference that he “wants the ball”. What McNabb meant to say was he wants the ball on key plays, not 58 passing plays per game. It was not McNabb’s best game by any means; he was out of sync, throwing 3 int’s and losing a fumble in a 13-13 tie with the Cincinnati Bengals. To add to an ugly and extremely boring game, Donovan made the mistake of saying he didn’t know that a NFL regular season game could end in a tie. People have been very vocal of Donovan’s ignorance to a rule of a game that he’s been playing for over 10 years, including bitter ex New York Giant Tiki Barber . I almost wonder if McNabb purposely made this stupid comment to divert attention away from the fact they tied the 1-8 Bengals, mainly due to the poor play of the offense.

The “what have you done for me lately” Philadelphia Eagle fans are gruesome when it comes to supporting their team. There’s no doubt the “boo birds” will be hating on every little thing their team did wrong this weekend, feeding on bad play calls along with McNabb’s post game overtime comment. Either this team hangs its head and calls it a season, or they use the media backlash as a kick in the butt to go on a winning streak. Most people would predict the Eagles are as good as done, but history has shown that this team usually goes into a mini slump in late November. While some teams start strong and burn out in the later half of the season, the Eagles actually play hard down the stretch, usually after a punch in face by the Philadelphia media.

Fat Tony Wants His Money
With the NFL being one of the most popular forms of sports gambling, a last second touchdown is a big deal, even if the game is over. On Sunday the Pittsburgh Steelers kicked a field goal to beat the San Diego Chargers 11-10. After the kick was made, the game clock read 11 seconds; the Chargers best chance would’ve been a kick return. After gaining no yards from the kick return, San Diego tried their luck at the lateral goof play. The play resulted in a fumble that Troy Polamalu recovered and ran into the endzone. To the average fan, it was just a great way to end a close game, but to a gambler it was the difference between winning or losing money. The Pittsburgh Steelers were favored by 3, and the Polamalu TD on the last play of the game would have covered the spread. The play was actually reviewed, and the refs said the play involved an illegal forward pass. After a closer look, there was no illegal forward pass, making the people who had the Steelers to cover the spread groan even louder for what could have been.

Gridiron Experts Week 11 Picks

Season to Date:

SU 90-52

ATS: 70-71-3

Most Underrated RBs of the Season written by Ben Hoyt

There are many big name superstar running backs in the league today. There is LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, and the list goes on and on. But what about the little named guys, the underrated running backs. Most of these players, who you probably never have heard of, may become the next big thing. Here is a list some of the 2008 season most underrated running backs:

Pittsburgh Steelers’ Mewelde Moore came into the spotlight after starter Willie Parker missed several games with a shoulder injury and rookie Rashard Mendenhall went out for the season after fracturing his shoulder. Moore has created a dominate run game for the Steelers. Moore has played in all nine games this season, starting four. He has rushed for 377 yards on 93 carries with 5 touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals’ Tim Hightower is rookie running back out of the University of Richmond. A fifth-round pick in the 2008 draft, Hightower has taken the starting job from veteran Edgerrin James. Hightower has played in all 9 games this season starting two. He has rushed for 264 yards on 84 carries with an amazing 7 touchdowns.

Tennessee Titans’ LenDale White has become one of the league’s toughest running backs. White, who shares snaps with rookie Chris Johnson, is a hard nose runner. He is used a lot in the red zone and goal line plays. White has rushed for 418 yards on 108 carries with a league high 11 touchdowns.

Houston Texans’ Steve Slaton is another rookie running back making a big name for himself. Slaton was a huge college football star when he was at West Virginia and has brought his skills into the NFL. Slaton, a third-round pick, was named the starter in Week 2 and has never looked back. Slaton has rushed for 545 yards on 124 carries and 5 touchdowns.

New York Giants’ Derrick Ward is another tough running back. Ward is part of the Giants’ triple threat running back core. The core is often called Earth, Wind, and Fire. Starter Brandon Jacobs is Earth, Ward is Wind, and third-string running back Admad Bradshaw is Fire. Ward has averaged 5.5 yards per carry through nine games this season. Ward has rushed for 490 yards on 89 carries and one touchdown.

Atlanta Falcons’ Jerious Norwood is one of the league top backup running backs. Norwood is the backup to starter Michael Turner, who come to Atlanta from San Diego in the offseason. He could probably be a starter on most teams in the league with his excellent skills. Norwood has rushed for 365 yards on 64 carries with 2 touchdowns in 9 games this season.

New England Patriots’ BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a rookie who has really made a name for himself in the last few weeks. Green-Ellis got his chance after starter Laurence Maroney went on injured reserve in Week 6. Backups Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk were hurt in the Week 6 game against the San Diego Chargers paving the way for him to get in the game. In Weeks 8 and 9, the Patriots named him the starter. Green-Ellis has rushed for 243 yards on 63 carries with 4 touchdowns in 5 games.
Write these players’ names down and remember them because one or all these players may be a future MVP or a superstar in the league.

Monster Thursday Showdown

6-3 New York Jets at 6-3 New England Patriots

(Previous meeting: NE 19-10)

The AFC East hasn’t been a strong division for quite some time. With teams like Miami and Buffalo in rebuilding modes, and the Jets never staying consistent, the Patriots have never needed to worry about making the playoffs. This is a completely different year; even with Tom Brady going down in week one, there’s no doubt that drastic improvements have been made in this division. Miami was projected to win just four games, but they have shocked the NFL with their ablility to win on the road, as well as how creative they can be with their offensive play calling. The Bills have struggled lately, but they started the season 5-1. At one point they seemed strong on all levels, getting big plays from their offense, defense and special teams. The Jets have made the most improvement, gaining confidence each week in their new (old) quarterback Brett Favre, and also by making huge strides on defense. New York has cut their defensive points allowed per game average down nearly in half since their bye week. Add a legend at quarterback, and winning isn’t a fringe benefit, it’s expected.

We all know what the New England Patriots are capable of, and most of the players don’t need an introduction, but Matt Cassel is a new face, one that wasn’t part of the 16-0 ass kicking the Patriots laid on the league last season. Who is this guy, and can he win a big game? Statistically (oh here we go again) his career is similar to the start Tom Brady had when he came off the bench. Tom Brady’s dominance in the NFL was not a common occurrence; his accomplishments have a made for TV movie written all over it. Realistically, Brady could quit now and still make the Hall of Fame. Matt Cassel, despite a solid start, won’t be able to put up Brady type numbers, but he has proven he can win games. On Thursday we will see a kid trying to prove he’s got some kind of skill, while an old vet will show all the doubters that he’s not over the hill.

“Its a walk off” -Zoolander

Gridiron Experts Pick
These two teams have very similar numbers, and any extra fire power that people might think the New York Jets have will be matched, as the Patriots will have a strong prime time home field advantage. The first time these two teams met, the Jets were trying to tolerate the learning curve that Brett Favre was under with a new offense. Meanwhile, the Patriots were giving Matt Cassel his first shaky start after Brady went down. Both of these quarterbacks have improved immensely since then. This game will be close, but I like the Jets with Favre in the cold.   NYJ 31-26

You’re Killing Me Coach!

There was no shortage of excitement this weekend in the NFL! Week 10 had a handful of games ending within 7 points or less, and many were decided in the final seconds of regulation. There were definitely fans wondering why certain plays were called, making everyone a “Monday Morning Quarterback”. Sometimes a play called by the head coach can backfire through no fault of his own; sometimes the play called is so questionable, it can get the coach fired.

ARZ 29 SF 24
Last night the San Francisco 49er’s had a chance to take down their divisional rivals, the Arizona Cardinals, in a game filled with more flags and penalties than running plays. In the dying seconds, rookie head coach Mike Singletary called a running play up the gut on 3rd down with Michael Robinson. He got stuffed with 3 ticks left on the clock, and with all of their timeouts gone, the game was over. Leading up to this questionable play call, the 49er’s had wasted up to 30 seconds before calling their last timeout, after getting the first down on the 15 yard line. The idea was to not score too quickly by taking down the clock before burning their last timeout. The problem, as everyone who watched this game found out, was that running out of time before scoring is even worse than leaving too much time on the clock for a comeback. Maybe the ref’s shouldn’t have blown a Frank Gore running play that got into the endzone which caused all of this confusion.

MIN 28 GB 27
This was a game where both teams had all three elements of their team playing well and putting points on the board. There were of course offensive touchdowns, but it was the defense and special teams that made the difference in this game. Green Bay was struggling and looked doomed until Nick Collins took back a 59 yard INT followed by a Will Blackmon 65 yard punt return for a score to take the lead. This game went back and forth, but was decided by kicker Mason Crosby missing a 52 yard FG. The game may be put on the kicker’s shoulders, but what people are not looking at are the 4 points scored from 2 safeties the Vikings defense made. One safety is bad, but two is the difference between needing a FG to win a game and milking the clock for a win.

NYG 36 PHI 31
The city of brotherly love did not love the play calls that Andy Reid made on the final drive against the Super Bowl Champs. Statistically, the Eagles had no business winning this game in the fourth quarter, with the time of possession and total yards greatly in the Giants favor. However, stats aren’t everything; 14 points off turnovers had Donovan McNabb (who needs a least a quarter to warm up these days) and his Birds hot. They were moving the ball well, down by 5 points in the fourth quarter. For years, the knock on Andy Reid was that the Eagles threw the ball too much, but lately it’s been the running game that has cost Philadelphia wins. With no time outs left, and a commercial break to think it over at the two minute warning, the Eagles were stuffed on runs on 3rd and 3 and then 4th and 1. The crowd was horrified; in a post game press conference McNabb was asked what he thought of the play calls to run, and he answered by saying “I want the ball”….drama.

SD 20 KC19
This game was a heart breaker for Chiefs fans, as a missed extra point made the difference between a win or a tie after Tony Gonzalez caught a TD pass with 29 seconds to go in the fourth quarter. Kicker Connor Barth for the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t feel bad about an earlier missed kick for too long, because coach Herm Edwards bailed him out with the terrible idea of going for two to win the game instead of playing for overtime.

IND 24 PIT 20
Where was the Steelers two minute offense that we’re used to seeing Ben Roethlisberger lead down the field? Being on their own 44 yard line and having two time outs left, fans seemed nervous but confident that their Steelers could get into scoring range. Each team exchanged penalties all game, but a crucial holding call on Matt Starks was the difference in this game; it killed a drive that wasn’t moving, resulting in a hail mary attempt to end the game. Ben Roethlisberger threw an INT leading up to the Steelers failed 2 minute drive that was intended to gain the first down on 3rd and 6. That play might have swung the momentum too far in the Colts favor to come back from, but it will sit with Steeler fans for days.  Why throw the ball with the lead when you have a great defense?

MIA 21 SEA 19
Short and sweet: coach Mike Holmgren knew he needed 8 points to tie the game, so he might want to have a play ready. Even with another drive that could have won the game for the Seahawks, the two-point conversion was the play of the game. If there’s ever a time to use a trick play or do your best “wildcat” impersonation, this would have been it.

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Money Where Your Mouth Is Week 10

This a weekly column that puts our expertise to the test, as we show a couple of the bets that we are placing on specific games, or prop bets offered by the many sports books and casinos. Of course we are a sports betting advisory, so our goal is to help you win money, but if you can’t afford to place bets…don’t.

New England -3.5

If you take a closer look at the Bills amazing start to the season, you might realize that winning their first 4 games wasn’t as impressive as it seemed. Any win in the NFL should not be thought of as being easy, but the Buffalo Bills got to play this years surprise bottom dwellers. The Seahawks and Jaguars are both struggling, and what some may have thought had been tough opponents early on now seem like pushovers. In fact, the only team with a decent record that the Bills have defeated was the Chargers off a bye week. The Patriots have had a different type of season, and were forced to regroup after the loss of Tom Brady. Figuring out what the back-ups are capable of in each game isn’t something most coaches want to try on the fly. Despite the Patriots close loss last week, I see these two teams going in different directions; the Bills PPG average is way down, while the Patriots are starting to build momentum. We like the Patriots at home to cover.

Kansas City +15.5

Get as many points as you can, because the Chiefs are not winning this game, but they will cover. The Chargers are legendary for overlooking games, and with a tough road game in Pittsburgh coming up, expect a sloppy start. The Kansas City Chiefs are surprisingly good at playing spoiler as Denver found out in week 4, and they even beat the Chargers last year. The Chiefs have changed their offensive style and can move the ball effectively. If Tyler Thigpen can look sharp against the Bucs, just think how easy it will be against the Chargers. This line is way off, the Chiefs will keep it close until they choke in the fourth quarter. Take the points!

Arizona -9

This is the worst Monday Night Football game scheduled to play all year. I don’t know who thought this would be a good game, but maybe a wager will make it more exciting. Nine points may seem like a lot, but the 49er’s have lost all hope, while the Cardinals want to show off on prime time. Take the Cards to cover.

No long shots this week

Season to Date:

Safe Bets: 14-8

Long Shots 5-4

Gridiron Experts Week 10 Picks

  Thursday night recap DEN 34-30 

A great game for fantasy players, but a hard game to watch if you’re a Browns fan. In what looked like a college over time game, the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns moved the ball up and down the field with ease. It came down to a bad coaching decision by the Browns to throw on 3rd and 4th down while only needing a yard. The Broncos couldn’t stop the run all night, and to throw with time outs to spare, coach Crennel looked like he “fell on his face”.

Season To Date: 81-48 (last week 10-4)

ATS: 63-64-3 (last week 9-5)